USD/CHF: Intertia Trend
IFC Markets | Apr 17, 2014 09:25AM ET
Today at 14:30 (CET, server time) we will see Unemployment Claims in the U.S. for last week. The data are collected by the Department of Labor and published in the weekly report. The Indicator allows evaluating the domestic demand dynamics, as well as potential consumer lending to stimulate the U.S. economy. At the moment, analysts are pessimistic. The figure is expected to be increased from 300K to 316K. However, if the index turns out below the predicted value, we should expect a short-term investors revival and strengthening of the American currency.
Here we consider the Swiss franc movement details on H4 chart. The bullish gap in the beginning of this week should be noted first. That was formed due to the positive statistics on retail sales. The Momentum gained by the market created inertial trend. Currently, the correction is over, as it is indicated by the Parabolic SAR. Moreover, the RSI-Bars broke through the upper Bollinger® Bands (13,2) limit and we would expect the next breakthrough around 61.34454.
It is advised to wait for the intersection of this level to be sure about the direction for the opening a position. It is proposed to place a pending buy order above the resistance level at 0.88256 prices and keep the position if the Unemployment Claims turn out below the projected level. The target determined by the nearest historical maximum at 0.88451 below the first Fibonacci level of 161.8%.
The stop loss is selected according to the nearest support level at 0.87800. This is an advantageous position, because it is confirmed by the ParabolicSAR and the first PivotPoints support. The risk limitation level is recommended to be moved after the parabolic values every 4 hours as soon as they cross the preliminary stop loss level. The pending buy order is recommended to be open 15 minutes before theUnemployment Claims publication. Recommended to limit the position lifetime till 16:00 (CET), when the ( Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) strikes out. More aggressive traders should switch a position into a breakeven condition. There are fundamental changes possible in the market at that time.
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