USD And Gold: Intermediate and Super Cycles In Progress
Surf City | Apr 03, 2017 12:27AM ET
Beyond the 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle and Yearly Cycle (2-3 Intermediate Cycles), there are also longer Cycles for all assets. Gold for example has a 4 Year Cycle and the USD has a 3 Year Cycle (all cycles measured Low to Low). The USD also has a 15 Year Super Cycle (5 of its 3 Year Cycles).
I have stated that my longer-term Cycle analysis indicates the USD should be making its 15 Year Super Cycle top in 2017 but I am not sure just yet if this is behind us or if the USD 15 Year high is dead ahead. As always, the Price and Time action on the charts will guide me.
For now the Wedge in my first chart needs to be watched closely over the next couple of weeks. A break to the upside of my Red down trend line will confirm a new Intermediate Cycle for the USD while a more serious breach of my Blue Uptrend line—that goes all the way back to early 2014—would have me strongly consider that the 15 year top is in.
My first chart of the USD shows it most likely made an Intermediate Low at the confluence of my Blue and Green lines near the 30eam. Price is now back above the 30ema on the weekly and this long term moving average is sloping up and providing support at Major Lows. If you are a Gold Bull, take notice as this still indicates the USD is still in a Stage 2 Bull Market. This may not be what you want to hear but I don’t sugar coat things with my analysis. I tell it like it is using Weinsteins 4 Stage concepts (see the post on the sidebar for reference) . We still have a long term divergence on the weekly USD RSI levels which supports the longer cycles may be topping but the Slow Sto on the Weekly also hit levels seen at the last 2 Yearly Cycle Lows for the USD. My 2nd chart shows the USD is at resistance near the 50ma so we may see some consolidation next week that allows Gold to move higher. Time will Tell.
My last USD chart is a 7-year weekly showing the long-term Price Channel I am tracking and the pattern of 3 Year Cycle lows for the USD. A breakdown of my Blue uptrend out of 2014 would signal the top is likely in while a break above my small Red down trend could potentially move price back towards the top of the channel near the 105-107 level.
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My first Gold chart shows Gold’s current Blue 4-year Cycle Uptrend that I am tracking, plus the Green Intermediate Uptrend. My second chart provides a close up of Gold’s current Intermediate Cycle.
If Gold can find support at the 10ema this would likely establish a half cycle low here and allow Gold to make a higher TC3 high this week which is higher than the TC2 high; this would be very positive for the longer Intermediate Cycle, in my opinion.
The last chart on SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) shows how the 10ema on the Daily will be critical to watch for daily closes. Stockcharts' timing for EOD price prints on Gold is an issue for me so I will rely on GLD.
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