US Retail Sales: October 2014 Preview
James Picerno | Nov 13, 2014 06:39AM ET
US retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in tomorrow’s October report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The prediction reflects a substantial rebound in growth vs. the previous month’s 0.3% decrease.
Compared with a trio of estimates based on recent surveys of economists, The Capital Spectator’s median projection for October is at the upper range of the consensus forecasts.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind the forecasts that are used to calculate The Capital Spectator’s median prediction:
R-2: A R .
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
VAR-6: A “vars” package.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
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