US retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in the July report (scheduled for release on Aug. 13) vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The prediction matches the previously reported 0.2% gain for June.
The Capital Spectator’s median projection for July also matches two consensus estimates based on recent surveys of economists.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections:
R-2: A R .
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
VAR-6: A “vars” package.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
