James Picerno | Jul 08, 2021 07:22AM ET
US second-quarter growth estimates continue to decline, but the upcoming GDP report is still expected to post a materially higher growth rate over Q1’s gain, based on a set of recent nowcasts.
US gross domestic product is projected to increase 8.8% (real annual rate) in Q2, according to the median nowcast for several estimates we've compiled. This estimate is well above Q1’s strong 6.4% gain , for example, the median nowcast was a modestly higher 9.3% advance.
Despite the downside revisions, the fact that the current nowcast remains high—this close to the July 29 release of Q2 GDP data—suggests that growth will likely post a material upgrade over the previous quarter’s already robust expansion rate.
New survey data for June offers a similarly upbeat profile of recent economic activity. The IHS Markit US Composite PMI Output Index slipped to 63.7 in June, down from May’s recent high of 68.7, but the latest print continues to reflect an unusually high rate of growth.
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