US Median Nowcast for Q3 GDP Edges Up To +2.9%
James Picerno | Sep 07, 2023 07:53AM ET
Stronger headwinds may be brewing for the US economic outlook, but next month’s third-quarter GDP report looks set to post a moderately firmer growth rate, based on the median estimate via several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Today’s revised data shows US output for the July-through-September period will rise 2.9% for GDP’s seasonally adjusted annualized change. This median nowcast reflects a solid improvement over the 2.1% increase reported by the government for Q2.
Today’s update of the median nowcast also marks a rise from the previous 2.4% estimate for Q3 published on Aug. 25.
Among the component numbers that define the median, there’s a wide variety of nowcasts, a range that speaks to the general level of uncertainty that prevails for economic analysis at the moment.
At the high end of the Q3 figures is the Atlanta Fed’s red-hot GDPNow model’s 5.9% estimate (as of Sep. 6).
On the flip side is yesterday’s revised data for the US Composite PMI, a survey-based proxy for GDP. The August reading reflects a near-flat performance for US economic activity.
“The slowdown in growth stemmed from a weaker service sector expansion and a renewed decrease in manufacturing output,” reports S&P Global, which publishes the PMI numbers.
Running the PMI history through a regression model and using the August data point as a predictor indicates that Q3 GDP will slide 1.0%.
As usual, it’s challenging in real time to say which nowcast is most accurate, and so the median, if history is a guide, offers the best guesstimate.
Get The News You Want
On that basis, it’s reasonable to assume that US economic output will continue to post moderate growth in next month’s initial GDP estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, scheduled for release on Oct. 26.
To be fair, there are several risk factors that could derail the relatively upbeat outlook for Q3 data between now and the Q3 report. But until there’s a material deterioration in the median estimate, the odds still look skewed for moderate growth in the July-through-September period.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.