US Indices Hit Round Numbers

 | Nov 18, 2013 01:28AM ET

U.S. indices hit a lot of "round numbers" this morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 16,000 and the S&P 500 1,800. We noted late last week that these round numbers sometimes mark near term tops but it is not necessarily the case. They could also mark a bit of a resting point and that is what happened today. Activist investor Carl Icahn spoke at a conference today and said he is "very cautious" on the stock market, saying he could see a "big drop" because earnings at many companies are fueled more by low borrowing costs rather than the strength of management. This caused a round of selling in the afternoon but really just took some froth out of the market. The S&P 500 fell 0.37% and the NASDAQ 0.93%. One item to note overseas is China relaxing its "one child" policy - that pushed the Shanghai index up nearly 3%.

At the index level today's action was the 2nd "bearish outside" reversal in as many weeks. Last time it was only in the S&P 500 (yellow shade below); this time it was in both the NASDAQ and S&P 500. It didn't matter at all last time, so in a world of money printing with $85B a month headed in all directions, one has to be cautious about becoming prematurely bearish. The last outside reversal day was completely reversed in a session or two.