U.S. Indices: 200-Day Moving Averages Come Into Play
Declan Fallon | Aug 08, 2022 03:25AM ET
There is still plenty of time before it happens, but given markets are making positive gains beyond the last major swing highs in May/June we have to consider the next major test of 200-day MAs. Even if this proves to be a bear rally, each gain firms up the possibility that the June lows *are* the low for this cyclical bear market (the secular low was March 2009, and the secular bear market ended in 2013 - at least for the S&P).
The NASDAQ is leading the indices having handily take out the June swing highs. Accumulation has been climbing with the rising On-Balance-Volume, and the MACD on a new 6-month high. Stochastics are overbought, which you want to see in a rally (it's when stocastics [39,1] drift out of overbought territory you have to worry).
The S&P hasn't quite made it beyond the June high, but with the 200-day MA not far away there is likely to be a combo breakout-test on the way. If there is a downside, On-Balance-Volume is on a 'sell' trigger, but it came on the start of a buying recovery before the 'sell' trigger. Other technicals are positive.
The Russell 2000 just edged a close above the June high (and has the most room to run to reach the 200-day MA). Summer trading volume has hit this index harder than others, but the Fall season should see a pick-up - particularly if the 200-day MA can be breached.
There has been little pause in this rally since late July, so lets assume the test of 200-day MAs come before a test of the last swing low of this rally (in late July). Buyers have control and likely will keep it until the holiday season is over.
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