James Picerno | Aug 19, 2013 06:39AM ET
Business cycle risk remains low, according to the July update of the Economic Trend (ETI) and Momentum indexes (EMI). Both benchmarks, which measure the broad trend in the economy via 14 economic and financial indicators, continue to post values that are well above their respective danger zones. That’s a strong signal for anticipating that the NBER will not declare July as the start of a new recession, or so the latest numbers suggest.
The leading weak point in this analysis is the rise in the price of crude oil, which is still increasing on a year-over-year basis. But the macro headwind linked with this trend has yet to show substantial spillover effects in the other indicators. Indeed, other than oil prices, the remaining data sets that comprise ETI and EMI are still trending positive.
Here's a detailed look at how the indicators for ETI and EMI compare over the last several months:
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