US Dollar Testing Resistance Ahead of FOMC Minutes
Gregor Horvat | Jul 09, 2025 04:24AM ET
As you know, the tariffs deadline has been delayed until August 1st, which gives plenty of time for new negotiations between the U.S. and other countries. This has brought some optimism back into the markets, and stocks are relatively stable—still holding a corrective tone, especially when looking at U.S. indexes, which could push higher again later this week.
However, today we have the FOMC minutes coming out from the latest meeting, and as you know, Powell has been cautious about cutting rates. Jobs remain stable, and inflation is still somewhat under control, so there’s no urgency to act too quickly. If the statement confirms that view, then the dollar could remain stuck in a range for a bit longer.
But as always, the key will be whether anything new or unexpected is revealed in those minutes—only fresh details could truly surprise the market and trigger sharp moves.
Looking at the intraday chart of US Dollar Index, the price action still looks corrective, with overlapping swings suggesting the structure is not yet complete. Of course, we could see another retest of resistance, but overall the market is approaching a very important zone going into the end of the week, where upside could be limited. I believe we are in the late stages of a W-X-Y recovery, with resistance seen between 97.60 and 98.20.
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