USD: Digesting At February Low

 | Mar 27, 2015 05:44AM ET

h2 Talking Points
  • U.S. dollarTechnical Strategy: Holding Long via Mirror Trader Basket **
  • Support: 11854, 11679, 11534
  • Resistance:11965, 12149, 12221

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index reversed downward as expected, making good on bearish cues telegraphed through negative RSI divergence. Near-term support is in the 11854-78 area (March 2009 high, 14.6% Fibonacci expansion), with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 11679-737 region (February 26 low, 38.2% Fib retracement). Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% level at 11965 clears the way for a test of the 12107-49 zone (38.2% expansion, March 13 high).

Our long-term fundamental outlook calls for a broadly stronger US Dollar against its major currency counterparts. With that in mind, we are holding long via the Mirror Trader US Dollar currency basket.