USD Speculators Continued To Trim Net Positions For 7th Out
Zachary Storella | Sep 26, 2016 02:54AM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators trimmed their bets of the US dollar for a second straight week last week and have reduced their bets for seven out of the last eight weeks.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$6.56 billion as of Tuesday September 20th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$0.57 billion from the +$7.13 billion total long position that was registered on September 13th, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).
The US dollar speculative level is currently at its lowest level since August 30th and has now remained under the +$10 billion threshold for six consecutive weeks.
h3 Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:/h3Last week’s data showed the major currencies that improved the most against the US dollar were the British pound sterling (+24,135 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (+7,065 contracts) and the Japanese yen (+1,939 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the Australian dollar (-29,619 weekly change in contracts), Mexican peso (-23,595 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-13,045 contracts), euro (-3,550 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (-755 contracts).
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Notable changes:
British pound speculative positions jumped sharply last week and rose for the fourth straight week to its least bearish level since July.
Euro positions declined last week slightly and has fallen for three out of the last four weeks.
Yen positions rose slightly for a 2nd week and the JPY net bullish position is at is best level in three weeks.
Australian dollar positions decreased for a fourth week and saw its net bullish position drop from +36,467 net contract to +6,848 net contracts.
New Zealand dollar positions also dropped sharply and fell for a 2nd week to a new bearish level of -7,916 net contracts.
Mexican peso positions declined sharply again last week and declined for a fourth straight week.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
British pound Sterling:
Japanese yen:
Swiss franc:
Canadian dollar:
Australian dollar:
New Zealand dollar:
Mexican peso:
*COT Report:The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
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