US Dollar Reversal On The Cards
Littlefish FX | Oct 25, 2013 03:11AM ET
Today
We highlighted yesterday the potential for a US dollar reversal and that we were waiting for confirmation, well today Retail Traders continued selling US dollars and our main systems switched to longs in the US dollar booking circa 400 pips in the EUR/USD long and GBP/USD longs.
Most USD crosses are in a similar state now with Retail Order Books into extremes and the overall trend into overbought territory thus suggesting we could be due a correctional move if only minor to clear out some of the orders before a large push higher.
Tomorrow see the advanced reading of the Q3 UK GDP which is likely to have a significant impact on the pair. We also have the German IFO slightly before this.
EUR/USD
Short: 1.3790
RTAS Order Book systems switched to shorts today as we saw some further Retail Buying in the cross as it made several attempts to get past the 1.3800 mark. Key resistance comes in around the 1.3850 and we would not be surprised to see it test this level before any potential reversal. Support comes in around the 1.3765 mark followed by the 1.3700 mark.
The Pair fought to get above the 1.3800 handle today with little real follow through. Pair now sits in a relatively overbought region with extremes in the Retail Order Book, we therefore like this for a correction back towards the 1.3620 level, if it can push past here then potentially the 1.3550 further retracement would suggest an overall trend turn.
GBP/USD
Short: 1.6150
Order Book systems booked profits on longs and switched short only for this pair to have a minor spike. So far the 1.6250 mark has capped this pair well and if we can stay below that then we could be on for a correctional move lower. UK GDP figures out tomorrow morning will be key.
Pair currently looks like it is creating a double top in this pair and we would like to see some confirmation. Retail Traders have started buying in the cross now and this could be the confirmation for a least a minor reversal potentially back to the 1.6000 handle. The RSI divergence is normally a bit of a tell that something is up.
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AUD/USD
Long: 0.9625
Order book systems booked profit on shorts and jumped long this pair as it found some support around the 0.9600 level. Retail Sellers started selling in this pair causing the switched. Strong support occurs around the 0.9580 to 0.9600 level, if we can hold above this then we could easily see a move higher.
The pair finally hit the 200 day SMA today and rejected it for a move lower. The blue box marked on our chart is our key resistance zone and we are watching price action very carefully here, however we could see this pair chop around and test the 200 day SMA a few times before settling on a direction.
EUR/AUD
Short: 1.4270
The RTAS Order Book systems held short positions despite the push higher in this pair as we started to see a pick up in Retail Buyers in the cross. We suspect this pair is now actually far more reliant on the next move in EURUSD than in the Aussie crosses. Key resistance comes in at the 1.4460 mark with support at the 1.4300 level.
Despite finding some support the key will be the next move for this pair and whether it starts to push lower again or is on its way back up to highs. Retail Traders still remain generally net short this pair but have been prone to buying dips, if we see further buying on a dip back below 1.4300 there is a good chance this pair will take another run at the 1.4150 mark.
EUR/GBP
Short: 0.8540
Order Book systems switched to shorts today as the pair tested a break of the 0.8530 level and quickly retraced back below. Resistance in the pair now sits at the 0.8530 mark, with interim support at 0.8510 followed by 0.8495.
The test and rejection of the 200 Day SMA today could be telling and we would like to see a short confirmed with further Retail Buying into dips. The RSI is now at a nice level with room to test yearly lows and the Retail Order Book also has room to maneuver the key will be how this pair reacts tomorrow and into October month end, whilst we stay below the 200 day SMA though we do prefer shorts.
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