Surf City | Mar 27, 2017 05:30AM ET
This update of the US dollar has four charts on the USD starting with longer term charts, then moving in for a close-up view on the current price action.
My first chart is a long term 20-year weekly chart that shows the USD’s breakout above the downtrend line from its last top in 2001. This chart also shows the current uptrend channel out of the 2008 low (Green and Orange lines).
This first chart also shows a steeper Blue uptrend from 2014. Some trend lines are clearly more important than others. Based on the number of touches over the past year, this Blue line is critical support for the USD’s current move and is also shown on my next two shorter term charts.
Based on my Cycle analysis, if and when this Blue uptrend breaks down, the USD will very likely have signaled its top within its longer 15-Year Super Cycle.
Chart 2, above, is a 3+ year chart that shows the same Blue uptrend along with a near horizontal Green line that may provide support for the USD prior to reaching the Blue line within this current downtrend.
Chart 3, above, is a nine month chart with the same Blue line. Note that we are within a whisker of a Failed Trading Cycle here, but the USD is also showing signs of bottoming or basing just short of making a Lower Low here.
My final chart, below, shows the last several months of price action and why this coming week will be critical, in my opinion. It clearly shows the USD is at a short-term inflection point. Either it is forming a double bottom from where it will bounce this coming week or it will break down and have a failed Trading Cycle.
Based on Time, I would expect it to make a decision rather soon as we are either on day 35 or on day 2 of a new Trading Cycle should Wednesday’s low on Day 33 prove to be a Trading Cycle Low.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.