USD Speculators Trimmed Bullish Bets For 1st Time In 8 Weeks
Zachary Storella | Nov 27, 2018 12:01AM ET
Large currency speculators reduced their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets last week while also pushing euro bets more bearish, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday due to the Thanksgiving day holiday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 39,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 20th. This was a weekly reduction of -1,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,513 net contracts.
The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position falling by -2,710 contracts to a weekly total of 45,738 contracts compared to the gross bearish position total of 6,398 contracts which saw a fall by -1,537 contracts for the week.
The speculator position declined for the first time in the past eight weeks and for just the third time out of the past thirty-one weeks. The current standing is now below the +40,000 net position level for the first time in three weeks.
h3 Individual Currencies Data this week:/h3In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category last week.
Euro positions dropped sharply last week by over -10,000 contracts. The euro bets have fallen for seven out of the past eight weeks and are now at the most bearish level since March 7th of 2017.
Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions last week were the British pound sterling (3,629 contracts), Japanese yen (2,229 contracts), Australian dollar (600 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,521 contracts) and the Mexican peso (6,796 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week were the US dollar index (-1,173 weekly change in contracts), euro (-10,210 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (-1,023 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (-3,498 contracts).
Other Notables for the week:
Mexican peso positions have bounced back modestly recently and have gained for two straight weeks following four weeks of declines. The peso is the only other currency than the USD Index that currently has bullish sentiment (presently at 14,083 net contracts).
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New Zealand dollar bets have improved for three straight weeks after falling to a record high bearish position on October 16th. The NZD net position is now below the -20,000 contract level for the first time since June 26th.
See the table and individual currency charts below.
EuroFX:
The Euro large speculator standing last week totaled a net position of -47,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,019 net contracts.
British Pound Sterling:
The large British pound sterling speculator level reached a net position of -43,478 contracts in the data reported for last week. This was a weekly gain of 3,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,107 net contracts.
Japanese Yen:
Large Japanese yen speculators equaled a net position of -100,065 contracts in last week’s data. This was a weekly advance of 2,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,294 net contracts.
Swiss Franc:
The Swiss franc speculator standing last week was a net position of -19,625 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,602 net contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of -6,289 contracts last week. This was a reduction of -3,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,791 net contracts.
Australian Dollar:
The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures reached a net position of -59,180 contracts last week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,780 net contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of -19,347 contracts last week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly advance of 1,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,868 net contracts.
Mexican Peso:
Mexican peso speculators totaled a net position of 14,083 contracts last week. This was a weekly rise of 6,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,287 net contracts.
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