U.S. Dollar Index Speculators Trimmed Bullish Bets
Zachary Storella | May 12, 2019 01:33AM ET
Large currency speculators slightly cut back on their bullish bets in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 28,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 7th. This was a weekly decline of -716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,949 net contracts.
This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position dropping by -4,310 contracts that overcame a decline in the gross bearish position which decreased by -3,594 contracts for the week.
The net speculative position has now fallen for the third time in the past four weeks. The speculator sentiment has slid slightly lower over the past few months and is below the +30,000 contract level for an eighth straight week after previously staying above this threshold for thirty-two straight weeks.
h3 Individual Currencies Data this week:/h3Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the Japanese yen (7,882 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (167 contracts), Canadian dollar (630 contracts) and the Australian dollar (1,956 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-716 weekly change in contracts), euro (-561 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,211 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,282 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-50 contracts).
Notables for the week:
Euro bearish bets rose again for a third straight week and for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. The overall bearish standing has now been over the -100,000 net contract level for a third straight week as speculators have expanded their strong bearish sentiment. The current level is now the most bearish level since December of 2016.
The bearish streak in Japanese yen positions cooled off this week after bearish bets increased for eleven straight weeks. The yen speculative standing has continued to be in bearish territory since June 19th of 2018 (a span of 47 weeks) and remains near the highest bearish levels with a total of -91,717 contracts.
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Mexican peso positions edged lower and fell for a third week after rising to an all-time record high bullish position on April 16th. The peso continues to remain the only other major currency besides the USD Index with positive speculator bets.
Swiss franc bearish bets edged a bit lower after bearish bets had increased for four straight weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks. The overall standing has now been above the -30,000 net contract level for four weeks straight. Swiss franc bets have now continued to be in a bearish position since August 8th of 2017 which is a span of 92 weeks.
See the table and individual currency charts below.
EuroFX:
The euro large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -106,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,544 net contracts.
British Pound Sterling:
The large British pound sterling speculator level equaled a net position of -6,879 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly reduction of -2,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,668 net contracts.
Japanese Yen:
Large Japanese yen speculators came in at a net position of -91,717 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly boost of 7,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,599 net contracts.
Swiss Franc:
The Swiss franc speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,579 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 167 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,746 net contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
Canadian dollar speculators recorded a net position of -46,115 contracts this week. This was an increase of 630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,745 net contracts.
Australian Dollar:
The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures was a net position of -57,049 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,005 net contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of -12,742 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly fall of -1,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,460 net contracts.
Mexican Peso:
Mexican peso speculators equaled a net position of 144,689 contracts this week. This was a weekly fall of -50 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 144,739 net contracts.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
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