Speculators Cut Bets On USD And Euro, While CAD Bets Jumped
Zachary Storella | Feb 24, 2019 01:55AM ET
Large currency speculators continued to slightly cut back on their bullish net positions in the U.S. dollar index futures markets into February, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
This latest COT data is from early February due to the government shutdown which suspended the releases for approximately a month. The CFTC is releasing data on Tuesdays and Fridays going forward until the data is back up to date.
The non-commercial futures contracts of U.S. Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 30,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday, February 5th. This was a weekly lowering of -236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,014 net contracts.
The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -2,685 contracts to a weekly total of 45,640 contracts which more than offset the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a decline by -2,449 contracts for the week to a total of 14,862 contracts.
The speculative net positions declined for three weeks in a row through February 5th. Despite the shortfalls, the latest standing shows that the U.S. Dollar Index positions have continued to stay above the +30,000 net contract level for twenty-seven straight weeks dating back to early August.
h3 Individual Currencies Data this week:/h3In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators' category for data through February 5th.
Canadian dollar bets improved by over +14,000 net contracts in the latest data for Feb. CAD bets have remained in bearish territory for forty-six straight weeks dating back to March of 2018 and had been above the -50,000 net contract level for five consecutive weeks before the improvement on February 5th.
Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions were the British pound sterling (1,452 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (1,935 contracts), Canadian dollar (14,353 contracts), New Zealand dollar (3,363 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,024 contracts).
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The currencies whose speculative bets declined were the U.S. dollar index (-236 weekly change in contracts), EuroFX (-5,490 contracts), Swiss franc (-34 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-3,505 contracts).
Other Notes:
EuroFX bets dropped for a third straight week and have fallen by a total of -19,303 contracts through February 5th. The overall net bearish position rose above the -50,000 contract level for the first time since December 18th.
New Zealand dollar bets gained for a second straight week and popped back over to an overall bullish standing on February 5th. This bullish position for NZD speculators comes after four straight weeks in bearish territory. The NZD joins the U.S. Dollar Index and Mexican peso as having the only bullish speculative positions among the major currencies.
See the table and individual currency charts below.
h3 Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes: February 5th Data/h3EuroFX:
The Euro large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -51,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday, February 5th. This was a weekly fall of -5,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,474 net contracts.
British Pound Sterling:
The large British pound sterling speculator level resulted in a net position of -33,744 contracts in the data reported for February 5th. This was a weekly increase of 1,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,196 net contracts.
Japanese Yen:
Large Japanese yen speculators equaled a net position of -31,410 contracts. This was a weekly increase of 1,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,345 net contracts.
Swiss Franc:
The Swiss franc speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,114 contracts in the data through Tuesday February 5th. This was a weekly reduction of -34 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,080 net contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
Canadian dollar speculators resulted in a net position of -42,037 contracts. This was a lift of 14,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,390 net contracts.
Australian Dollar:
The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures recorded a net position of -35,617 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday February 5th. This was a weekly lowering of -3,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,112 net contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar speculative standing recorded a net position of 547 contracts in the latest COT data. This was a weekly advance of 3,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,816 net contracts.
Mexican Peso:
Mexican peso speculators recorded a net position of 71,467 contracts. This was a weekly rise of 2,024 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,443 net contracts.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
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