US Dollar Bets Pushed To Six Week Highs
Zachary Storella | Jul 28, 2014 01:00AM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large trader and speculator bets for the US dollar rose to the highest level of the last six weeks and recorded the largest weekly gain since June 10th.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US Dollar long position totaling $14.12 billion as of Tuesday July 22nd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$4.18 billion from the $9.94 billion total long position that was registered on July 15th, according to the calculation by Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The aggregate US dollar position has now continued to be on the bullish side for the eleventh straight week as the overall bullish level marked its highest standing since June 10th when bullish bets equaled $15.95 billion. The weekly gain of $4.18 billion in dollar bets also represents the highest weekly rise since June 10th when bets advanced by $4.56 billion.
h3 Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:/h3
Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators bet in favor of the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso while there were weekly decreases for the euro, British pound sterling, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday July 22nd and provides a glimpse of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
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Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:
- Euro positions, after taking a multi-week pause around the -60,000 contract level, deteriorated sharply last week and pushed euro positions to their lowest level (or most bearish) since 2012. Euro positions are now the most bearish of the major currencies
- British pound sterling positions dropped for a third straight week to the lowest level since March 18th
- USD/JPYpositions got a boost for a second week last week and overall bearish positions are now at the lowest level since May 20th
- Canadian dollar positions continued to improve for a sixth straight week and to the highest level since February 12th 2013
- Australian dollar net positions edged slightly lower last week after reaching the highest since April 2013 the previous week
- New Zealand dollar positions also slightly pulled back after rising for four straight weeks
Please see individual currency charts and more data below.
h3 Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price /h3
EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/17/2014 | 285489 | 51405 | 113240 | -61835 | -4650 |
| 06/24/2014 | 291244 | 55062 | 112565 | -57503 | 4332 |
| 07/01/2014 | 291488 | 52665 | 113441 | -60776 | -3273 |
| 07/08/2014 | 294381 | 51595 | 110860 | -59265 | 1511 |
| 07/15/2014 | 310661 | 59506 | 122352 | -62846 | -3581 |
| 07/22/2014 | 339706 | 58142 | 146965 | -88823 | -25977 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/17/2014 | 250231 | 100434 | 47838 | 52596 | 16754 |
| 06/24/2014 | 254369 | 98098 | 48347 | 49751 | -2845 |
| 07/01/2014 | 255911 | 99929 | 43517 | 56412 | 6661 |
| 07/08/2014 | 254788 | 86614 | 44975 | 41639 | -14773 |
| 07/15/2014 | 255115 | 85983 | 47213 | 38770 | -2869 |
| 07/22/2014 | 241155 | 71792 | 44295 | 27497 | -11273 |
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/17/2014 | 153007 | 17832 | 85870 | -68038 | 14124 |
| 06/24/2014 | 148257 | 10325 | 81548 | -71223 | -3185 |
| 07/01/2014 | 156480 | 18739 | 77425 | -58686 | 12537 |
| 07/08/2014 | 157710 | 11174 | 77549 | -66375 | -7689 |
| 07/15/2014 | 155127 | 8385 | 71333 | -62948 | 3427 |
| 07/22/2014 | 162029 | 11979 | 65895 | -53916 | 9032 |
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/17/2014 | 32259 | 15296 | 11776 | 3520 | 6550 |
| 06/24/2014 | 33599 | 9069 | 14441 | -5372 | -8892 |
| 07/01/2014 | 35221 | 9731 | 16991 | -7260 | -1888 |
| 07/08/2014 | 35053 | 9136 | 15949 | -6813 | 447 |
| 07/15/2014 | 35007 | 8799 | 15061 | -6262 | 551 |
| 07/22/2014 | 38359 | 9642 | 17022 | -7380 | -1118 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/17/2014 | 132209 | 34582 | 56115 | -21533 | 2575 |
| 06/24/2014 | 103193 | 40595 | 45915 | -5320 | 16213 |
| 07/01/2014 | 111438 | 44755 | 42060 | 2695 | 8015 |
| 07/08/2014 | 128555 | 58245 | 47950 | 10295 | 7600 |
| 07/15/2014 | 129787 | 60353 | 44732 | 15621 | 5326 |
| 07/22/2014 | 129188 | 62078 | 41497 | 20581 | 4960 |
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/17/2014 | 99400 | 61078 | 34049 | 27029 | -1218 |
| 06/24/2014 | 101998 | 65612 | 32149 | 33463 | 6434 |
| 07/01/2014 | 114918 | 76598 | 37719 | 38879 | 5416 |
| 07/08/2014 | 101860 | 66705 | 30102 | 36603 | -2276 |
| 07/15/2014 | 105209 | 70881 | 31138 | 39743 | 3140 |
| 07/22/2014 | 109341 | 72170 | 33377 | 38793 | -950 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/17/2014 | 28467 | 21671 | 17938 | 3733 | -13122 |
| 06/24/2014 | 31415 | 24855 | 18703 | 6152 | 2419 |
| 07/01/2014 | 33455 | 26563 | 17578 | 8985 | 2833 |
| 07/08/2014 | 36123 | 26750 | 12334 | 14416 | 5431 |
| 07/15/2014 | 32879 | 26570 | 11117 | 15453 | 1037 |
| 07/22/2014 | 32728 | 26028 | 10896 | 15132 | -321 |
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/17/2014 | 135017 | 91227 | 22152 | 69075 | -21128 |
| 06/24/2014 | 128333 | 84943 | 15974 | 68969 | -106 |
| 07/01/2014 | 129425 | 85387 | 15825 | 69562 | 593 |
| 07/08/2014 | 126231 | 82777 | 13966 | 68811 | -751 |
| 07/15/2014 | 131108 | 86707 | 17070 | 69637 | 826 |
| 07/22/2014 | 142254 | 98823 | 19689 | 79134 | 9497 |
Disclaimer: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
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