FxPro Financial Services Ltd | Aug 17, 2022 05:56AM ET
While economists in the US and Canada, and later policymakers, are talking about peak inflation, that moment is yet to come for the UK. Annual inflation has reached double-digit territory at 10.1%. At the same time, the monthly price growth rate remains elevated.
This cooling of the early price indicator further fuels confidence in the Bank of England's forecasts that consumer inflation will peak in November and levels near 11%.
It is difficult for the Bank of England to maintain the same rate hikes as the Fed due to a less bright labour market picture, which thickens the cloud over the economic outlook. As a result, the British pound is under additional pressure, losing more than 12.5% to the dollar.
Historically, due to higher inflation in the UK compared to the US, GBP/USD has been dominated by a downtrend. Currently, the pair is testing the area near 1.20 for the fourth time in modern history. The difference in monetary policy potential and actual inflation data are set up that the GBP/USD will finally dip into lower territory in the coming weeks.
The FxPro Analyst Team
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