U.S. Retail Sales, September 2014 Preview: Slight Rise Expected
James Picerno | Oct 14, 2014 06:22AM ET
US retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in tomorrow’s September report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The prediction reflects a substantial deceleration in growth compared with the previous month’s 0.6% increase.
The Capital Spectator’s median forecast for September contrasts with three consensus estimates based on recent surveys of economists that project a modest decline for retail sales in tomorrow’s update.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind the forecasts that are used to calculate The Capital Spectator’s median prediction:
R-2: A R .
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
VAR-6: A “vars” package.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
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