U.S. retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in tomorrow’s August report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The prediction reflects an improvement over the flat performance for retail sales in July.
The Capital Spectator’s median projection for August is below three consensus estimates based on recent surveys of economists.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s forecasts that are used to calculate the median projection:
R-2: A R .
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
VAR-6: A “vars” package.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.