Housing starts are expected to total 937,000 in tomorrow’s update for July, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection represents a moderate increase vs. the previously reported 893,000 for June.
The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for July is below three consensus estimates based on recent surveys of economists.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections:
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
R-1: A R .
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
