James Picerno | Jan 25, 2013 08:39AM ET
Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP for 2012 is expected to increase 2.0% in next week's initial report from the government, according to The Capital Spectator's average econometric nowcast. That's up from the previous 1.6% nowcast published on January 7. The higher nowcast reflects several upbeat economic reports for December data that have been published over the last two weeks. The official Q4 data is scheduled for release on January 30, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its initial GDP estimate for the last three months of 2012. (All GDP percentage changes cited are quoted as real seasonally adjusted annual rates.)
In last year's third quarter, GDP advanced 3.1%, according to the current BEA estimate. Although the current 2.0% nowcast represents a substantial deceleration from Q3's pace, it's strong enough for expecting that the economy is on track to report a moderate rate of growth in the final three months of 2012. Note too that The Capital Spectator's 2.0% nowcast for Q4 GDP growth is above several recently published forecasts, including The Wall Street Journal's 1.6% consensus prediction via a January 4-8 survey of economists.
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