U.S. Energy Imports Revised Down
The National Bank of Canada | Feb 19, 2013 10:19AM ET
Canada Watch
According to the latest projections from the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. production of primary energy is expected to continue to outstrip demand at an accelerated pace. As a result, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has again revised down its projections for U.S. volume imports of primary energy. As today’s Hot Chart shows, imports have already been revised down by 22% relative to the baseline forecast made just five years ago. So far, the drop in U.S. demand had spared Canadian electricity exporters. This situation is unlikely to last. In fact, the EIA believes that 2012 was the peak year for U.S. electricity imports. According to the organization, volume imports could fall by as much as 18% in 2013, the worst annual decline since the 2008-2009 recession. As shown, the outlook shows continued deterioration after that with a cumulative drop of 44% by 2030. It is of course possible that the EIA could get its projection wrong as much will depend on further technological improvements for energy extraction. Still, none of the Canadian energy-producing provinces can ignore the profound changes that are taking place in the U.S.
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