James Picerno | Apr 19, 2013 07:46AM ET
"It’s not the healthiest recovery," but "we believe that we have avoided the worst, and the economic world no longer looks quite as dangerous as it did," says the International Monetary Fund's managing director. That roughly sums up the state of the US economy too, as suggested in today's update of The Capital Spectator's Economic Trend Index (ETI) and Economic Momentum Index (EMI). Both indexes, which reflect a diversified set of economic and financial indicators, remain at levels historically associated with economic expansion. In addition, the near-term projection for these indexes also looks encouraging, based on econometric estimates for next several months.
There are still plenty of macro risks, to be sure, and so the analysis could change quickly, depending on how the April data compares. But based on the current numbers through the March profile, which is nearly complete in terms of economic releases, recession risk remains low. Growth overall is still sluggish, which raises obvious caveats for looking ahead. But it's growth nonetheless and the numbers in hand imply that we'll see more of it for the near term. Let's take a closer look at this analysis, starting with a review of the individual indicators that comprise ETI and EMI:
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