Tuesday Uncertain
The Night Owl Trader | Sep 16, 2014 01:54AM ET
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Tuesday uncertain.
- ES pivot 1981.17. Holding above is bullish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
I called Monday lower and I was right - for the SPX. But for the Dow, my benchmark, it's just another miss as the Dow continues to act squirrelly. In fact this whole week will be a challenge, what with a Fed announcement and options expirations. We carefully thread our way through the minefield in an attempt to avoid blowing up our account. Now which way is Tuesday headed?
The technicals
The Dow: The Dow chart lately has been a veritable picket fence of candles with long shadows as early intraday moves get canceled by the time the bell rings.. Nevertheless, there's no denying the wobbly downtrend we're in now. Monday's action almost, but not quite exited the descending RTC, which would be a bullish setup. And the indicators continue to wander about aimlessly. There's no real direction here so I'm not calling this chart tonight.
The VIX: Like an Olympic hurdler, the VIX on Monday leapt to its 200 day MA after four consecutive failed attempts, and never looked back to end with a 6% gain.. That level (13.57) now become support as the VIX remains firmly inside a rising RTC and the indicators have yet to reach overbought. SO there's no sign of a move lower here.
Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are basically flat at 1:08 AM EDT with ES up by just one tick and YM up 0.03%. On Monday ES put in a fair tomahawk pattern and finally hit oversold. It simultaneously managed to close just outside its descending RTC for a bullish setup. The indicators look ready to reverse but the overnight is offering little guidance, so I'm going to wait and see on this chart.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 1987.83 to 1981.17. Despite ES going nowhere, that was enough to put it back above the new pivot, so this indicator now flips back to bullish.
Dollar index: The crab market continues in the dollar (only moves sideways) as we got the fifth day in a row of going essentially nowhere. We're long out of th3 rising RTC and still way overbought so one would think the next move ought to be lower - if we ever start moving again.
Euro: The euro on the other hand is now in a shallow rising trend despite a loss on Monday. That leave sit right on the cusp of a long-running descending RTC. Tuesday will be key here to see if the euro can eke out at least a small gain to escape the downtrend. And having just retaken its daily pivot, that just could happen.
Transportation: Last night I wasn't ready to commit to the obvious reversal star hanging over the Trans. Too bad because on Monday the trans dropped 0.36% to start off the new week with a bearish evening star. With indicators still closer to overbought than oversold, there's really nothing bullish about this chart.
Get The News You Want
The charts don't really seem to be painting a convincing picture either way tonight. Perhaps the pre-Fed jitters are setting a day early this week. In any case, I've had enough of going out on a limb for a while and having it crack beneath me so I'll just call Tuesday uncertain.
ES Fantasy Trader
Portfolio stats: the account remains $114,250 after eight trades in 2014, starting with $100,000. We are now 6 for 8 total, 4 for 4 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push. Tonight we stand aside.
/h2
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.