Dow, VIX, SPX All Remain Range-Bound
The Night Owl Trader | Jan 17, 2017 01:00AM ET
The Hoot
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- Tuesday lower.
- ES pivot 2269.58. Holding below is bearish..
- Rest of week bias lower technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Way back last Thursday night I called Friday as "uncertain" because frankly I had no idea which way the market was going on Friday. Turns out Mr. Market didn't either as the Dow fell all of five points after a largely indeterminate session featuring an early advance followed by a meandering dribbling away of those gains. We now begin a short week, which always makes things tricky and on top of that it's January op-ex week and on top of that we've got a presidential inauguration coming right up on Friday. Somehow I see more uncertainty on the horizon.
The technicals
The VIX: The VIX continues to bounce along on multi-year support as it continues to defy my expectations for a move higher soon. But what goes down must come up so I'm still expecting an up day this week.
Market index futures: Monday night, all three futures were lower at 12:32 AM EST with ES down 0.28%.
ES daily pivot: Monday night the ES daily pivot rose from 2260.83 to 2269.58. And that along with a drop in ES now leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bearish.
The major charts like the Dow, SPX and VIX all remain range-bound with a distinct lack of direction. But the overnight futures are guiding lower at the moment and I don't see any real bullish signs in the ES daily chart so I'm just going to go out on a limb and call Tuesday lower.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.
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