Tuesday's U.S. Retail Sales And Long-Term Yields: What To Expect
Mike Paulenoff | Nov 14, 2016 02:32PM ET
The ten-year yield has climbed 34% from its Nov. 4 pivot low at 1.72% to Monday morning's high at 2.31%.
The vertical assault in reaction to the "shocking" Trump election, and after a 35-year Bear Market in yield, has propelled yield into heavy and consequential resistance between 2.25% and 2.50%, which will require robust economic growth to successfully penetrate and hurdle.
Tuesday's retail sales data for October represents the first data point after the Trump election and could recalibrate perceptions about the strength (weakness) of the U.S. economy 8 years after The Financial Crisis.
The fact that the Daily Sentiment Reading (DSI) for falling bond prices (the inverse of yield) registered a low, single-digit reading of 4 as of Friday's close argues strongly that a period of digestion and correction should be forthcoming -- especially if retail sales prints a mediocre report.
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