Trump’s Latest Gift For USD Bears
Ashraf Laidi | Mar 02, 2018 02:27PM ET
Trump finally did it. Thursday’s announcement of 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% tariffs on imported aluminum is an outright trade war. Regardless of whether protectionism has been the cornerstone of Trump’s campaign promises, once it is announced, markets react.
As Trump was backing protectionism in Thursday’s press conference, Fed Chair Powell showed his opposition to trade wars in general.
Potectionism is not the answer. The best approach is to deal directly with the people who are directly affected, rather than falling back on tariffs.
The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY William Dudley – former chief economist at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) – summed it up best:
Trade barriers are a very expensive way to preserve jobs in less competitive or declining industries. A trade war… could damage economic growth prospects around the world.
Meanwhile, Trump tweeted on Friday:
h3 The Usual Mid-Term Year Dirty Tricks/h3..trade wars are good, and easy to win
I mentioned in an
As the charts indicate, currency traders no longer support the US dollar despite the prolonged selloff in indices following Trump’s announcement, after which we saw broad greenback selling. The action in gold is also telling.
Technicals have not lied. 1.2150 in EUR/USD and 1300 in gold proved major support levels, underpinning my ongoing stance against the USD outlook. USD bulls will hope for a surprise shift in this month’s FOMC dot-plot view in favor of 4 Fed hikes in 2018 instead of 3. It is highly unlikely that the outlook will change. But even if it does, when was the last time the number of Fed hikes for the year signaled by the dot plot ever materialized?
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