Trump Slump To Oil Slide: Top ETF Stories Of First-Half 2017
Zacks Investment Research | Jun 27, 2017 01:49AM ET
The first half of 2017 witnessed several key events. From Donald Trump taking chair as the U.S. President, to the Fed’s policy tightening, to developments in the oil patch or happenings across the U.S. border – each incident left a profound impact on the global investing world and asset classes. Below we will discuss how the ETF universe responded to these events so that investors have a fair idea of how the funds might behave going into the second half.
U.S. Large Cap Growth Stocks Leading Market
If small-caps were the stars in late 2016, large-caps ruled the first half of this year. Major U.S. indices hit highs in 1H. On January 26, 2016, the Dow hit the 20,000 mark for the first time in history buoyed by the Trump rally (read: What Does Dow's 20,000 Mean for These ETFs? ).
Expectations of materialization of a corporate tax reform and fiscal reflation in the Trump administration paved the way for growth stocks. Moreover, PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (NYSE:UUP) 7 Large-Cap Growth ETFs That Are Sizzling ).
SPDR S&P 500 Growth (NYSE:SPYG) ETF (AX:SPY) (up 14.4%) has thus surpassed SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) (AX:SPY) (up 9.6%) and SPDR S&P 500 Value (NYSE:SPYV) ETF (AX:SPY) (up 4.3%) so far this year (as of June 22, 2017).
Trump Uncertainty
The Trump rally lost some steam in Q2 as political uncertainty surmounted. With controversies over the leakage of "highly classified information" to two top Russian officials by Trump, chances of his success in pushing through his pro-growth pledges are ebbing. His healthcare bill is also facing political gridlocks. Whenever uncertainty flared up, equities went into a tailspin and gave a boost to safe haven ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares (V:GLD) . The fund is up 8.5% so far this year (as of June 22, 2017) (read: Best ETF Strategies for Trump Uncertainty ).
Tech Rally & Crash
Thanks to the improving technology sector, the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite Index inched past the huge milestone of 6,000 for the first time in late April. The rise of e-commerce and cloud services have created a sound operating backdrop and fundamentals for the tech sector. However, the stupendous rally made the space guilty of overvaluation, causing a crash in June. Some of the top-performing tech ETFs are ARK Web x.0 ETF Is the Tech Rout Overstated? Buy 3 Stocks & ETFs on the Dip ).
Eurozone Back with a Bang
The Eurozone saw a strong start to the year thanks to economic improvement and upbeat corporate earnings. Also, receding political upheaval on favorable election results in France and the Netherlands augur well for the region. Some of the top-performing Europe ETFs in the year-to-date frame are Barclays (LON:BARC) ETN + FI Enhanced Europe 50 ETN What Makes These Europe ETFs Still Roaring ).
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Two Fed Rate Hikes
The Fed has enacted two rate hikes this year, one in March and the other in June. The Fed also indicated its plans of normalizing its $4.2-trillion balance sheet as soon as this year and gradually speeding up the process. Fed officials now plan one more rate hike this year (read: Surprise ETF Winners Post Fed Hike ).
However, U.S. inflation remains subdued. Along with inflation concerns, a report that a probe against Donald Trump to see if he tried to manipulate election results, some downbeat economic readings and a steep slump in crude oil prices kept investors edgy.
As a result, yields of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury dropped 30 bps to 2.15% on June 22 from the start of the year. The long-term U.S. Treasury ETF iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (NASDAQ:TLT) has advanced 8.4% this year (as of June 22, 2017).
Oil Slips to Bear Market Despite Output Cut Extension
The world's two top oil producers agreed in May to prolong their ongoing output cut from the first half of 2017 to the end of the first quarter of 2018. Even this couldn’t salvage oil price as surging U.S. supplies outdid OPEC cuts.
Oil dropped more than 20% in mid-June from its recent high, indicating a bear market and marking “the biggest first half slide for Brent since 1997.” L5 ETFs to Buy as Crude Crashes on Inventory Built ).
A-Shares to Be Added to MSCI EM Index
After years of denials, MSCI (NYSE:MSCI) finally announced in mid-June that it will add China A shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the MSCI ACWI Index, beginning June 2018. This move will likely let mainland China's stock market to see capital inflows of about What Does the MSCI Inclusion Mean for China A Shares and ETFs? ).
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