Treasurys Spotlight: Have Yields Risen From A Year Ago?
Mike (Mish) Shedlock | Nov 22, 2017 12:10AM ET
Are U.S. Treasury yields up or down from a year ago? The answer is yes: Both.
Reader David asks:
h3 Daily Treasury Yields 2013 to Present Daily Chart/h3"Are we in a recession? According to the yield curve we might already be. I'm in Cleveland so it is hard to tell since we've been in a recession since about 1998."
The yield curve has not inverted (shorter-term Treasuries yielding more than longer-term Treasuries), and that's the typical recession indicator.
However, we have had recessions where the yield curve did not invert before the recession started. And we have also had inversions without a recession.
My playbook has always been the next recession will start without an inversion, but it is now increasingly likely the Fed will hike right up to the point they start slashing rates like mad, just as happened in the housing bust.
Get The News You Want
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.