Transports Working On Breakout After Being Hit Very Hard
Chris Kimble | Feb 10, 2016 09:50AM ET
When it comes to getting hit hard, the Dow Jones Transportation Index fits the bill over the past year. Few if any major indices have fallen harder, over the past 12-months.
Below looks at the DJ Transportation Index/S&P 500 ratio over the past decade. The ratio reflects that over the past year, the index has been much weaker than the broad markets.
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The ratio hit channel resistance at (1) a year ago and decline almost as hard as it did during the financial crisis in 2009. The sharp 12-month decline took the ratio down to channel support at (2), where a small rally has taken place of late. This rally reflects that Transports, are reflecting some relative strength against the broad markets, for the first time in a year.
Below looks at the DJ Transports Index-
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After hitting 6-year channel resistance a year ago, Transports have been punched in the gut, losing nearly a third of its value. Some tend to call that a bear market. Regardless of what you call it, if one has owned this index, its been painful, to say the least.
The decline over the past year, took the index from channel resistance, down to rising channel support at (1). Channel support also happened to be the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, based upon the 2009 lows/2015 highs. As it was hitting dual support a few weeks ago, it also created a potential reversal pattern, bullish wick at (1).
Now this hard hit index is attempting to break above steep falling resistance at (2) above. Transports have been the leader on the downside for the past 12-months. The Power of the Pattern believes that what the leader to the downside here does going forward, could be very important to the broad markets.
What the Transports do in the near future, looks to be very important, as the S&P 500 is at the bottom of the 2-year sideways channel above.
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