Trading The CA BOC Interest Rates Decision: September 3, 2014
Henry Liu | Sep 01, 2014 01:49AM ET
CA BOC Interest Rate today will probably leave rates unchanged for yet another meeting. Since there are really no expectations for surprise today, the only potential is the accompanied rate policy statement, and I recommend staying out of the market unless we get a surprise hike/cut decision.
Here’s what analysts expect:
10:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Interest Rates Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
DEVIATION: 0.25% (BUY CAD 1.25% / SELL CAD 0.75%)
The Trade Plan
Most analyst agree that the BOC will hold rates at 1.00%. I´ll be trading this release with a 0.25% deviation using Spike Trading method. In the event of a surprise hike it´s almost guaranteed that we´ll see strong market movement immediately after the release. However, in all reality, the BOC is unlikely to surprise the market today, especially considering recent economic data.
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news. Of course you can also trade the default pair: USD/CAD.
Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
Definition
BOC Interest Rate Decision is set in a target bandwidth for the overnight rate each month of +/- 0.25% around its target overnight rate. The Bank of Canada does not interfere in the overnight market so long as the overnight rate stays within its target band, but the Bank will use its reserves to lend or borrow in the overnight market to ensure that the overnight rate stays within its announced bandwidth.
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