Trade Wars Complicate Outlook For EUR/USD
MaiMarFX | Jun 25, 2018 06:01AM ET
The pound proved unable to overtake the 1.33-handle last Friday. While we generally expect more strength in the GBP/USD ahead of the BoE August meeting, we also prepare for a bearish reversal in short-term time frames. As long as the 1.3315-barrier remains unbroken, we turn our focus to a break below 1.3230 which could result in further losses towards 1.32 and 1.3150. Above 1.3315 we may see a run for 1.34 and 1.3450.
The EUR/USD marked a considerable bounce, which was primarily due to losses in the dollar but as stated last week we still see the pair confined to a sideways trading range between 1.17 – 1.15. As long as this range holds, the outlook remains neutral. For the short-term bias to shift slightly in favor of the bulls, we would need to see a sustained break above 1.1730 with higher resistances coming in at 1.1850 and 1.19.
Trading the EUR/USD recently, proved particularly difficult since there is a number of fundamental themes, complicating the outlook for this major pair. The escalation of a global trade war is at the top of the list of fundamental risks, with Trump’s most recent threat of a 20 percent tariff against European cars marking a new stage in trade wars. Uncertainty leads to risk aversion in the market and this makes the development of sustainable trends very difficult.
EU leaders will gather for the EU summit on Thursday and Friday. On the data docket, we have U.S. GDP figures (Thursday), the Eurozone Consumer Price report and the Fed’s PCE inflation gauge (Friday) scheduled for release.
We wish you a good start to the new week and many profitable trades.
Here are our daily signal alerts:
EUR/USD
Long at 1.1680 SL 25 TP 30-40
Short at 1.1610 SL 25 TP 15, 40
GBP/USD
Long at 1.3285 SL 25 TP 20, 60
Short at 1.3230 SL 25 TP 20-30
Disclaimer: Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Get The News You Want
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.