Today's Trading Plan: Looking For Price Movement
Ryan Mallory | Nov 18, 2014 03:05AM ET
Pre-market update:
- Asian markets traded 1.1% higher.
- European markets are trading 0.6% higher.
- US futures are trading 0.3% lower ahead of the market open.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45), PPI-FD (8:30), Housing Market Index (10), E-Commerce Retail Sales (10)
- SPX ended its four-day run of consecutive doji candles - albeit barely.
- Yet again, despite being in doubt early on, SPX finished above the 5-day moving average.
- 10-day moving average was tested on an intraday basis and held perfectly.
- Some follow through on yesterday's menial 1.5 point move would be huge today as it would break price out of the current price range.
- VIX rose 5.1% to 13.99.
- Volume continues to remain below average - most clearly seen on SPY.
- S&P 500 30 minute chart showing signs of possibly breaking out of consolidation.
- To say the least indecision about short-term direction is ruling this market for now.
- Basically the price levels you should be following is whether the price can close above 2046 or below 2030 on SPX.
- The 5-day moving average has yet to be breached on a closing price basis since 10/16.
- The price action on SPX is very similar to what was seen in late August and early September of this year - very tight consolidation.
- Whether the rally continues for the foreseeable future or not, one thing remains, and that is it cannot continue for much longer, to rally at the gravity defying slope it has done for over three weeks now.
- As a result, consolidation will have to kick in, in order that the trend-line may flatten out some.
- Historically trend-lines that are steeper/greater than 45 degrees are nearly impossible to maintain over an extended period of time.
- The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
My Trades:
- Added one new long position yesterday.
- Closed MAR at 77.12 for a 1.33% gain.
- Will consider adding 1-2 new long positions today.
- Remain long HUN at 24.73, UA at 68.60, FLEX at 10.98, TSLA at 253.30
- 50% long / 50% cash.
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