Thursday Going Higher
The Night Owl Trader | Jan 22, 2015 01:03AM ET
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Thursday higher.
- ES pivot 2021.50. Holding above is bullish
- Friday bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- Single stock trader: waiting on new VZ entry.
The market just continued treading water on Wednesday as everyone awaits the big announcement from the ECB today. Right now the only question is whether or not it's already been baked in. Personally I don't think that's entirely the case. But perhaps the charts will shed some light on this subject as we continue on to the end of the week.
The Technicals:/h3
The Dow: Just more uncertainty from the Dow on Wednesday, this time in the form of a lopsided spinning top that after another triple digit excursion resulted in just a 39 point advance. Technically though this chart remains bullish, probably reflecting the market's expectation of QE from the ECB.
The VIX: Tuesday night I wrote "I don't think we're done going lower". Good thinking too because after a doji day the VIX just kept right on descending, down another 5.23% yesterday on a giant bearish engulfing candle. That's still nowhere near enough to drive the indicators oversold and the stochastic is still in full-on bearish crossover mode so there are still no bullish signs on this chart.
Market index futures: Last night, all three futures were higher at 12:22 AM EST with ES up 0.20%. Tuesday night I wrote "(a bunch of things) all point to continued higher on Wednesday." And sure enough, ES had a decent day yesterday, continuing out of its descending RTC for a bullish trigger. Indicators are now off oversold but continue rising and there was some more positive pin action last night, so it looks like the traders are expecting good news from the ECB today, Thursday.
ES daily pivot: Last night the ES daily pivot rose again from 2013.58 to 2021.50. Once again we remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.
Dollar: The dollar had a rare down day on Wednesday but even so managed a green hanging man. What it does today will depend in large measure on the ECB, so no call here.
Euro: Amazingly, the euro actually closed higher on Wednesday, its first green candle in seven sessions. But two inverted hammers does not make a rally, so we'll just have to wait and see what the ECB says today. That's sure to move the euro.
Transportation: Tuesday night I wrote "it looks like the rally isn't over yet.". And indeed it wasn't as the trans packed on another 0.45% on Wednesday with three white soldiers and a bullish trigger on the descending RTC exit. Indicators still not yet overbought though so I'm going to guess there's still room to run here today.
Get The News You Want
Obviously the big news today is the ECB's QE announcement. Right now the technicals are looking like the market is gearing up to move higher so I'm just going to assume that someone knows something I don't (not hard to do) and call Thursday higher.
h3 Single Stock Trader/h3
VZ remains in a rising RTC and it looks like my calls for a short term top Tuesday night were premature. With non-confirmation of Tuesday's doji, it just looks like it will continue higher.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.