This Week’s Data Dispells Recession Fears...For Now
Econintersect LLC | Sep 02, 2012 01:22AM ET
The amount of economic data and analysis in cyberspace is overwhelming. One must pre-decide what is important, and not important. Even with automation where human minds do not touch the data – weighting factors or algorithms are used when sifting through the data. With all the data out there, I could make strong cases the economy was recessing, muddling or expanding.
On occasion, some pundits mine the data to prove a point. But the economy is not a single dynamic or grouping of data points but millions of dynamics interacting. While many parts of the economy will be expanding and different rates, it is also true that many will be contracting at different rates.
The governing groups of dynamics are constantly in a state of flux. One must always question if this time is different – and also question if that particular model is correctly forecasting. Using several economic models which have different views of the governing dynamics provides a broad perspective. Generally, all economic models are forecasting economic expansion with the major exception being ECRI’s Weekly Leading Indicator until this week (this index is now positive).
GDP and Consumer Spending
GDP is a rear view economic mirror – and to consider it a forecasting tool is ignorant.
This past week the second estimate of second quarter GDP Click here to view the scorecard table below with active hyperlinks.
Ampal-American Israel, CHL, Contec Holdings
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