Geoff Bysshe | Aug 09, 2021 12:42AM ET
The stock markets rallied sheepishly into Friday’s job data, then apparently got what they needed to relax despite volatility in gold, interest rates and the dollar.
This is not normal market behavior.
The SPY was so relaxed by the report that its true range for the day was the smallest it’s been since Christmas eve in 2019.
Note, narrow ranges often lead to big moves as readers of our articles should know. So don’t let a lack of volatility fool you.
From the fundamental side, it appears that the report was perfect for stocks—not hot enough or weak enough to change the outlook for earnings growth which is what appears to be keeping the bulls buying and the bears at bay.
This idea is demonstrated by the fact that on Thursday, even without seeing the jobs report, Goldman Sachs raised their targets for the S&P 500 for this year and next. Their reasons for optimism were better-than-expected earnings and lower-than-expected interest rates.
This is certainly the current trend…
According to FactSet, 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 87% beating their earnings estimates, and 87% reporting revenues above estimates.
Goldman’s target of 4,700 (7% higher) for 2021 puts them at the top of the street’s targets according to Bloomberg.
Of course, not everyone cares about earnings growth, and I’m sorry I didn’t see this one coming…
Last week I noted that the weak Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) IPO may set up an opportunity for an IPO day high breakout trade.
In short, the trade entry is a break over the IPO day high after a weak IPO that consolidates lower.
What I failed to remember is that HOOD and meme stock traders trade options, and the breakout happened on the day HOOD options started trading!
Barron’s reported….
“Just after noon on Tuesday, 75,000 calls and 95,000 puts had already traded in the stock, compared with 13,000 calls and 15,000 puts traded in Coinbase Global (COIN) on the first day that company’s options were available, says Susquehanna International Group’s Christopher Jacobson”
If you’d like to see another stock in the middle of an IPO breakout pattern, check out Clear Secure (NYSE:YOU).
Whether the bulls are relying on earnings or options trading, the one thing that seems to be remarkably discounted is the increasing spread of the COVID variant. Rising cases, deaths, and politically and socially controversial rules and mandates seem to be being ignored by the markets.
Or maybe not. Perhaps this is why a perfect jobs report didn’t spark a rally.
As you’ll read in this this past week’s highlights, the market’s momentum as measured by Real Motion, still suggest that weakness could lead to further weakness, so don’t be complacent.
h2 Last Week's Market Outlook Highlights/h2(links with a “$” will only be accessible by premium members)
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