The Week Ahead: More Opinions But Less Data
Jeff Miller | Mar 11, 2013 01:05AM ET
Sometimes the weekly calendar does not provide much fresh data. This has no effect on the need for content on the part of financial media. Blank pages and air time must be filled.
The result? A bull market in opinion --- data not required.
The economic data have been pretty consistent – low inflation, consistent but weak growth, and some bright spots, especially in housing.
The policy implications have also been clear – a Fed determined to emphasize the employment side of the dual mandate.
None of this provides much zest, especially since there is little change in the story. The way to spice it up is to find some extreme opinions and get an argument going. My prediction is that this week will see a more varied media lineup, with riffs on the following themes:
- New market top. Has the move been too fast, too far? Is it justified?
- Stagflation. I resisted putting this in the title. I notice that it is popular with readers, so the topic is a Twinkie-style sugar high. The story comes in two parts:
- Some will emphasize the "Stag" with another recession salvo from the gang at the ECRI. While the measures keep changing, they seem to command media attention. Too bad that the recession truth squad does not get equal time.
- Some will emphasize the "flation" by claiming that government data are wrong.
- Fed Manipulation. Yet another group will explain that this is a "training wheels" rally based upon a "sugar high" and warning that it will all end badly.
And that is my prediction – a week of opinion fluff instead of real information.
As usual, I have some thoughts about how to navigate these waters, which I'll report in the conclusion. First, let us do our regular update of last week's news and data.
Background on "Weighing the Week Ahead"
There are many good lists of upcoming events. One source I especially like is the weekly post from the WSJ's Capital Observer notes that there are plenty of lagging stocks – mostly in cyclical and technology names. That is where I am buying as well.
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