The Week Ahead: G7, Jackson Hole Wind Down, U.S. GDP, German IFO

 | Aug 23, 2019 03:17AM ET

Monday 26th August

  • German IFO Business Sentiment

  • U.S. Durable goods orders, Dallas Fed Manufacturing

    • Tuesday 27th August

  • German GDP

  • French business and consumer and sentiment

  • U.S. house prices, Richmond Fed manufacturing index,

    • Wednesday 28th August

  • Australian construction work

  • German consumer sentiment

  • Eurozone money supply

    • Thursday 29th August

  • New Zealand business sentiment

  • Australian Capex

  • Japanese consumer confidence

  • Europe: French final GDP, German unemployment and inflation, European Sentiment Indicator

  • U.S.: GDP 2nd estimate, initial jobless claims

    • Friday 30th August

  • South Korean industrial output

  • Japanese employment, retail sales

  • Australian building permits and housing credit

  • German retail sales

    • We’ll know the outcome from the Jackson Hole Symposium

    Ultimately it appears that Powell’s speech on Friday (ie later today) is the main attraction. Traders are feverishly trying to decipher whether the 25 bps cut really was just a ‘mid cycle adjustment’, or there’s further easing to come. Yet the outcome of the talks could well spill over to next week, which could make early Monday trading more interesting than usual. Particularly if Powell is more dovish on the economy, given the latest set of tariffs.

    G7 Summit comes to a close

    The summit takes place between Saturday and Monday, with the final two days providing closing statements from central bank heads and key figures.

  • Trade is not on the agenda, yet it could well be discussed during one-one-on meetings, so any headlines over the weekend could impact markets around Asian open. Besides, it’s hard to image Trump traveling all that way without trying to throw the cat among the pigeons. Tensions have been brewing in the trade war after the Trump administration turned their attention back to Europe, so any fallout here could weigh on sentiment next week.

  • An interesting side story is whether Russia will be allowed back into the G7. It’s been reported today that France’s PM Macron is on board with the idea, which gives them the weekend to lobby the idea. Although it’s more likely to flare tensions than see G7 revert to G8.

  • RBA’s Philip Lowe speaks on Sunday and, whilst we doubt it will be a platform to jawbone AUD (and not that he needs to…), he’s likely to be in support of world trade given the concerns raised in RBA’s August minutes.
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  • Boris Johnson meets with ECB president Donald Tusk on Sunday

  • Emmanuel Macron gives the closing news conference after the G7 summit on (probably Monday European time)