This Week's U.S. Data In Focus
Emre Karaoglu | Feb 03, 2019 12:47PM ET
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair closed last week above the key support level of 1.1446 after upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls data.
The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 304K in January, far above the consensus forecast of 165K jobs. The government shutdown was supposed to affect the unemployment rate but it didn’t rise nearly as much as feared. The unemployment rate only rose to 4.0% from 3.9%. The average hourly earnings rose 0.1% m/m after 0.4% m/m in December. However, the greenback was flat after January’s unexpectedly strong employment data.
Looking ahead among next week's U.S. data, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders, Trade Balance, and Weekly Jobless Claims, as well as the Crude Oil Inventories, will be closely followed by traders. The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be published on Tuesday and it is expected to ease to 57.0 from the previous month's reading of 57.6. A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative for the greenback.
Additionally, the head of the U.S. central bank, Chair Jerome Powell will speak at a town hall meeting for teachers, in Washington DC on Wednesday. Investors will scrutinize for any hints on how the Fed views inflation and the economy.
If the EUR/USD pair is able to stay above 1.1446, on four hourly bases, the upward movement may continue and we will see 1.1531 and 1.1607 as resistance levels. On the other hand, if the price drops below 1.1446, the next daily support level will be at 1.1367.
Support: 1.1446 – 1.1367 - 1.1262
Resistance: 1.1531 – 1.1607 - 1.1720
U.S. dollar rose versus the safe-haven currency, Japanese Yen last Friday. As long as the USD/JPY pair stays above 109.35 on a daily basis, the bullish action may gain more momentum and we will follow the key resistance levels at 109.90 and 110.86. Although, if the currency moves below 109.35, the next support level is holding at 108.78.
Support: 109.35 - 108.78 - 107.65
Resistance: 109.90 - 110.86 - 111.66
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The BoE will announce its rate decision on Thursday. The market expects the BoE keeps unchanged their benchmark interest rates at 0.75%. Also, the BoE's new inflation forecasts will be closely watched by traders. If the BoE projects a more aggressive interest rate hike outlook, it can drive the Sterling higher.
Moreover, the U.K. Service PMI will be published on Tuesday. The Service PMI is expected to ease to 51.0 from 51.2.
The GBP/USD pair closed last week above the main level of 1.3050. As long as the price stays above 1.3050 on a four hourly basis, we might see an upward movement. At this point, we will follow the resistance level at 1.3152 again. On the other hand. If the price falls below 1.3050, the next daily support level is holding at 1.2961.
Support: 1.3050 - 1.2961 - 1.2844
Resistance: 1.3152 -1.3241 - 1.3338
The Gold Price closed last week below the key level of 1319. As long as the yellow metal price stays below 1319, on a four hourly basis, the downward movement may continue and we will face the daily support level of 1307. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1319, the next resistance level can be found at 1330.
Support: 1307 - 1291 - 1283
Resistance: 1319 - 1330 - 1.352
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