The Ord Oracle: Bottom Forming in S&P 500, Expect Move In Gold Soon
Tim Ord | Oct 06, 2021 09:24AM ET
- SPX Monitoring purposes: Sold Oct. 4, 2021 at 4300.46=near breakeven; long SPX Sept. 30, 2021 at 4307.54.
- Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long VanEck Gold Minors (NYSE:GDX) on Oct. 9, 2020 at 40.78.
- Long Term SPX monitor purposes: Neutral
More evidence that a bottom is forming in the SPX. Above is the weekly “National Association of Active Investment Manager” (NAAMI) chart. When the NAAMI's lower Bollinger® bands are touched (noted with a “0” or lower reading; bottom window) that means that the market has been near an intermediate term low.
The current reading is -.01 and at bullish levels.
Panic readings in the tick and TRIN may develop late this week or early next week to potentially set up the next bullish signal. Intermediate term bullish signals are present. In a neutral position for now.
This is the week before options expiration week where whipsaws are common. The top window in the chart above is the 10 day average of the TRIN. Readings near .90 and lower can produce short term highs in the market and today’s reading came in at .90. If the market does rally when a 10 day TRIN <.90 the rally is usually weak and short lived. two day trins with a reading of .62 below .75 are bearish.>
An intermediate term low appears to be forming here, but the bottom process incomplete. Next week's options expirations should see a move up. We are looking for a bullish setup not far from current levels.
We should see movement in GDX soon as the Inflation/Deflation ratio Bollinger® Bands are pinching. Yesterday we said:
/.90Get The News You Want
Read market moving news with a personalized feed of stocks you care about.Get The App“The bottom window is the Bollinger Band width for the Inflation/Deflation ratio. When the Bollinger Band Width for the Inflation/deflation ratio reaches near 25 (current reading is 25.55), the market is do for a impulse wave to start.
The chart above goes back over 20 years and the red vertical lines show when the Bollinger Band width reached near 25. Some of the impulse waves were up and some where down. We have shown in our report over the last several days that the next impulse wave should be up. Don’t know what the catalyst will be to start the next impulse wave for gold but it should be fairly soon.”
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