The New Cycle Is Bearish For The Year-End
Anthony M. Cherniawski | Dec 05, 2011 03:49AM ET
The only model suggests that the final wave five of c may go as high as 1288.67. Elliott Wave relationships suggest a top at 1279.00. What we now have is a smallish wave (i) and an oversized wave (ii).
The next opportunity for cycle turn is Monday morning. The low on November 25 is 1 1/2 daily pi cycles early, which is outside the normal range for a trading cycle low. For example, the October 4 low came one half pi cycle early.
However, the cycles were calling for a Master Cycle low between November 20 and November 29. It appears that the Master Cycle was on time. This Master Cycle is not the dominant cycle, but will have to keep an eye on it as we go and 2012.
In the meantime, I am still expecting a new low by December 8. That new low should take up the new head and shoulders neckline at 1158.67 and with it the October 4 low at 1074.77. Under the new cycle regime, it appears that we may get a bounce into options expiration week, ending December 16. However, that bounce may fail and produce a very nasty year end for equities.
Get The News You Want
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.