Doug Casey's International Man | Nov 06, 2014 10:20AM ET
As you may have heard, my colleague and friend Marin Katusa has just published his new book, The Colder War.
Let me be candid. I really like this book because it's original, it's well-reasoned and its conclusions are correct. It's important that you read it. Let me take a few minutes to explain why the subject of energy is even more important than most people imagine and why Marin is not only the right man to explain it but a winning player in the rough-and-tumble energy arena.
Everyone Needs Energy
It's a commonplace that "the world runs on energy," but few appreciate the mercilessness of that truth for an industrialized world. Putting it quite simply, energy is the sine qua non of civilization itself. Without large quantities of it, most of us would literally starve and would do so while freezing in the dark.
Marin wasn't planning to write a book until I twisted his arm. Although he's a competent writer, as you'll see, he's first and foremost a dealmaker. But what has brought him so much success in that career is being a preternaturally shrewd analyst and an independent big-picture thinker. His take on many things -- not least the Putinization of energy and the incipient Colder War -- is likely to give you a new view on what is going on in the world. He won't be echoing the conventional wisdom you're likely to hear on network TV or read in the New York Times.
Marin is that rare person who is both academically smart and street smart. He was a university math professor and has a bent for science. And it didn't take him long to put theory into practice, analyzing the fundamentals - geology, mineralogy, engineering, permitting, management and a score of other disciplines - of mining companies and oil companies.
He's not only got a strong academic background in oil, gas, unconventional energy, uranium and mining, he's got a proven hands-on, boots-on-the-ground record of building and running successful companies. In particular, he's largely responsible for putting Canada's third-largest copper mine into production - all the way from property acquisition to financing, construction and profitable operation. That's a rare accomplishment and extraordinary for a 30-year-old (his age at the time).
He was one of the largest investors in the company early on. He's even now one of the most successful financiers in the resource exploration business and runs four hedge funds, where he and I are the largest investors. (He puts his money where his mouth is.) The funds have outperformed the TSX-V Index by 600% over the last five years, despite holding large cash balances. In both relative and absolute terms, it's one of the most exceptional performances I've ever seen.
I've been in the resource finance business for about 40 years and have gotten to know most of the movers and shakers. Many of them -- like Robert Friedland, Lukas Lundin, Frank Giustra and Ross Beaty -- are multibillionaires. Marin will join their ranks, quite possibly in this cycle -- since right now resource stocks are at an historic bottom. I saw him cut the deal that founded the largest shale gas company in Europe. And we were recently in Albania together to assess what may become Europe's largest onshore oil producer.
All About Governments
In today's world -- much more so than in even the recent past -- the world's 200+ governments are the biggest factor in resources. Their leaders and bureaucracies determine whether a resource can even be exploited, what workers are paid and how much will be left over after the government extracts its royalties and taxes.
Hence a good part of this book explains how international politics relates to energy and how the worldwide energy picture is likely to evolve over the next decade. Especially with regard to Russia. More particularly with regard to Vladimir Putin who, at age 62, is likely to be on the scene for years to come. He's both a lot smarter and a lot tougher than any of his counterparts in the West and he will be a big part of what will make the next decade among the most "interesting" (to use that word as the Chinese do) in world history.
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