The Market Analysis: Flat
Tim Ord | Jul 07, 2013 05:36AM ET
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
The SPY is into the gap resistance level created June 20 between 161 to 162.5 range. We were looking for resistance in this range and volume has dropped off showing energy has decreased. However the McClellan Oscillator is staying above “0” level closing today near +30. If the McClellan Oscillator had closed below “0” we would have considered a short SPX position as that condition would have turned down the McClellan Summation index. A declining McClellan Summation index appears in downtrend markets. Market that pushes higher into holidays have a bearish outcome in that volume drops as the holiday nears and light volume rallies usually have a bearish outcome. In general we are expecting a consolidation phase that could last into September. For now we will keep our powder dry.
The above chart is the daily 10 year Treasury note yield (TNX) with the RSI. Over the last few days the RSI for TNX did reach above 75 and in previous cases, have lead to pull back in the SPX. We got a similar signal in late May which did produce a pull back in the SPX. In conclusion, the RSI hitting above 75 for TNX suggests a short term pull back in the SPX.
Above is a method we developed and back tested that had a good percentage of wins. We are waiting for the next buy signal to setup. First GDX must close above the two displaced moving averages (blue and red lines) than wait for next consolidation and when the Slow Stochastics turns back up the buy signal will be complete. The setup for this trade is when GDX closes above the blue and red lines of which has not happen yet. But moving sideways to up over the next week in the 24 to 25 range will most likely produce the setup. And after that is accomplished, than the Slow Stochastics needs to turn up to complete the buy signal.
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For now we are being patient. Long NG at 5.14 on 10/8/12. Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Sold SLV at 30.24 on 12/16/12 = gain 2.6%; Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ average 29.75 on 4/27/12. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25.
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