The Energy Report: Control Freak Out

Oil is on the rise as the headlines blast that the oil market is going to get extremely tight in the second half of the year and that OPEC has regained control of the oil market. These headlines are correct, and it is something we predicted would happen oh so long ago. These are predictions by Citadel and are being echoed by other people in the market who must face up to the fact that global demand is exceeding daily production and could by a wide margin by the end of the year.

Vitol is predicting oil averages between $80 and $100 a barrel because of what they call a restrained market. The CEO of Vital, Russell Hardy, says that oil demand growth is expected to be at 1.9 mbpd this year. Also, Reuters is reporting that Mexico is cutting oil exports by at least 330,000 barrels per day in May.

Oil prices are surging after Hamas predictably rejected the terms of the ceasefire and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday said Israel will be moving forward with a planned attack on the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. This comes as the Iranian foreign minister continues to blame the United States for approving Israel’s attack on its consulate in Syria. The attack that killed 2 Iranian generals may be a reason why Iran may still respond. Yet Iran has failed to do so, so far. Perhaps they are worried about sparking a direct conflict with Iran or the United States.

Global demand is exceeding supply as China’s manufacturing sector surges. Their domestic demand hit the highest level since pre-COVID. S&P Global reported overnight that China’s independent refineries ramped up feedstock imports by 13.3% on the month to a seven-month high of 17.4 million mt (127.54 million barrels) in March, the highest since August when it was at 18.23 million mt, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed April 9.

The supply squeeze is on and the bearish arguments that we would not consume as much oil because we were heading into a recession or that Chinese demand was near record high would peak were incorrect.

They also said that US energy producers would continue to find ways to increase output to meet global demand would continue to happen even with the most hostile fossil fuel administration in the nation’s history.  Sadly, Americans pulling up to the pump are finding out that this was not the case.

JP Morgan is reporting that U.S. oil production is starting to fall to 12.32 million barrels a day over the past week that’s down from 12.71 million barrels the prior week. Industry insiders are now saying that because of increased regulatory burdens and the lack of capital, the US energy production is going to plateau. Sufficient reasons suggested that the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline and drilling moratoriums, and threats of more regulations would stymie US output and cede control of the global oil market back to OPEC over the US was bound to happen.

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Now there is a Washington Post article, you know that paper where their mission is to let Democracy Die In Darkness that says, “The EPA Mulls Tougher Limits On New Gas Plants As 2024 Election Nears. “The Post says, “The reconsideration comes after the Biden administration has backpedaled on other proposed climate regulations.” Yes, the ridiculous proposals were based on data that showed it cost a lot of money but did absolutely nothing to help the environment. He had to back pedal because the truth made them look ridiculous. So now to try to save face with the environmental left they have to make a splash.

The Post reports that, “The Environmental Protection Agency is considering significantly strengthening proposed limits on planet-warming pollution from power plants — a crucial part of President Biden’s climate agenda — according to three people briefed on the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because no final decisions have been made.

The discussions about toughening the standards, which are set to be released this month, have major implications for America’s fleet of power plants, which rank as the country’s second-largest contributor to climate change. They come as the administration weighs the political calculus of weakening or strengthening environmental regulations before the 2024 election. The Post says, “The change could affect most new gas plants built in the United States, and it could have a significant climate impact. According to the EPA’s modeling, it could prevent up to 10.6 million metric tons of carbon emissions per year — equivalent to taking 2.5 million cars off the nation’s roads for a year.” Of course, you better check their math on that.

One of the things that we want to keep an eye on is this weakness in the crack spreads. The weakness in the crack spreads and the moves higher suggests that maybe demand could be challenged by these prices. On the flip side of that though, the other reason why we’re seeing some reluctance to move higher is concerns that the economy is too strong, and the Fed will have to cool things down. Don’t you love it when the market is confused as to whether it should be happy, the economy is strong, or it should be bearish because the economy is strong?

Oil prices are overbought but bounced back after key support test. The risk to oil is still around the upside but we have to be on guard for some corrections and some volatility.

Natural gas is starting to rebound even as we expect to see an injection this week into supply. With more talk of falling production, it is giving the natural gas market a boost.

Written By: Phil Flynn