Stephen Innes | Nov 14, 2022 02:40PM ET
Oil investors were likely too optimistic about China's reopening story. Given the rise in Omicron cases ahead of flu season, I would not be surprised to see another major Chinese city implementing lockdowns again. Suggesting a meaningful reopening, which is definable as a permanent end to snap lockdowns and other domestic mobility curbs, could still be 9+ months away.
Although my book is finally at risk-neutral in FX land, what a long dollar-strange trip it's been reflecting on this year. I's certainly been one for the record books. However, as 2023 draws close, the markets are poised to head into a new phase as the dollar peaked
Of course, none of the above developments give the all-clear on global inflation and geopolitical risks. But they realize an exceptional concurrent compression of the risk premium that has driven dollar strength this year as two of the most significant macro and postive USD catalysts give way.
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