EUR/CHF
FX Solutions | May 11, 2008 08:00PM ET
EUR/CHF – The EUR/CHF daily chart, as shown, has just bounced up off a steep, short-term uptrend line (labeled “1” on the chart) that exists within the larger context of a rising wedge formation. In turn, this rising wedge exists within the context of the medium-term downtrend (represented by the red resistance line) that commenced after the October 2007 reversal of the previous long-term uptrend. At the current juncture, because the pair is in a medium-term downtrend and within a rising downward-continuation wedge, the technical event to look for is a clean breakdown of the steep short-term uptrend line at “1”. If this occurs, major support to the downside resides around the very long-term dynamic support/resistance trendline labeled “2”. This level also coincides approximately with a key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (the low-to-high retracement span being measured from the long-term low reached on 3/17/2008 to the last swing high around 5/5/2008).
James Chen
Chief Technical Analyst, FX Solutions
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