Swiss Franc: Downtrend Could End Soon With Reversal on the Horizon
Michele Schneider | Apr 18, 2024 02:32AM ET
On March 26th I wrote a Daily called: Last Night I Had a Crazy Dream-Swiss Franc
When I awoke and looked at the charts, I noticed in the futures market is that CHF/USD (Swiss Franc to the US Dollar) has been in a freefall for a while.
On the monthly chart, FXF has moved closer to the 23- and 80-month moving averages.
Even more importantly, the price has been above both MAs since a year ago.
With long bonds yields softening a bit and the US dollar coming off its recent highs, I thought it might be fun to revisit this dream and update you on the current daily chart analysis.
First off, FXF is holding the October 6th low over 97.00.
Secondly, FXF is now outperforming the benchmark or SPY.
Thirdly, our Real Motion Indicator tells us that FXF had a mean reversion.
Finally, on April 15th FXF made a new 60+ day low followed by an inside day, with today’s action closing above the highs of both days.
Reversal pattern?
Ideally, we would like to see FXF get back over and close the week out over 98.10 or the 200-WMA.
h2 ETF Summary/h2- S&P 500 (SPY) 500 next big support
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 192 support
- Dow (DIA) 372 the January low
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 427 pivotal especially on a weekly close basis
- Regional banks (KRE) 45-50 range
- Semiconductors (SMH) 205-206 support
- Transportation (IYT) 67 pivotal with 65 bigger support
- Biotechnology (IBB) 128 pivotal
- Retail (XRT) 67.00 next support
- iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 75.50 the 200 DMA
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