Strong Surge In AUD/USD Pair, Long-Term Bearish Trend At Risk
Mohaimenul Jowarder | Jan 25, 2018 12:26AM ET
The Aussie dollar found some solid support against the greenback after it hit the critical support level at 0.75025. From that level, the pair started its bullish rally and managed to clear the strong resistance level of 0.77821. This level was a very crucial level for the AUD/USD bulls since they also have to overcome a 100-day dynamic resistance level. Most of the long-term investors in the global trading community have already gone long in the AUD/USD pair and have moved their stop-loss to the break-even level.
Figure: Aussie dollar heading towards the critical resistance level at 0.81185
From the above figure, you can clearly see that bulls are taking full control of this market after it formed the initial bottom near the critical support level at 0.75000. Most of the professional traders in the investors' community will be looking for bearish price action confirmation signals near the high of 7th September, 2017, to trade the bearish reversal. However, a daily closing of the price above the critical resistance level at 0.81185 will confirm the establishment of a long-term bullish trend in the AUD/USD pair. The CEO of Worldcore , Alex Nasonov, says that uncertainty might prevail in the global trading industry for the first quarter of this year.
On the downside, the first bearish target is the critical support level at 0.78854. From that level, we might see some decent bullish bounce. This level will be an excellent opportunity to execute fresh long orders in favor of the long-term trend. A daily closing of the price below that level will ultimately lead this pair towards the next minor support level at 0.78104. From that level, we might see some ranging movements in the AUD/USD pair but, eventually, the bears are most likely to break below that price level. If the bears managed to clear the critical support level at 0.78104, the medium term bullish trend will be at great risk. A clear break of the critical support level at 0.77233 will confirm the end of the current bullish rally and the overall sentiment of the market will turn into bearish.
The recent performance of the US economy is not up to the mark and fed chairperson Janet Yellen has failed to present a clear fiscal policy to overcome their current economic crisis. Moreover, the significant delay in the US tax cut policy has created an extensive bearish sentiment among US consumers. To be precise, the dollar bulls have a tough time in the near future unless the fed's chairperson comes out with a solid plan to deal with the current recession period. Considering the technical and fundamental parameters, the AUD/USD pair is most likely to challenge the high of 7th September, 2017.
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